On the early epidemic dynamics for pairwise models.

نویسندگان

  • Carlos Llensa
  • David Juher
  • Joan Saldaña
چکیده

The relationship between the basic reproduction number R0 and the exponential growth rate, specific to pair approximation models, is derived for the SIS, SIR and SEIR deterministic models without demography. These models are extended by including a random rewiring of susceptible individuals from infectious (and exposed) neighbours. The derived relationship between the exponential growth rate and R0 appears as formally consistent with those derived from homogeneous mixing models, enabling us to measure the transmission potential using the early growth rate of cases. On the other hand, the algebraic expression of R0 for the SEIR pairwise model shows that its value is affected by the average duration of the latent period, in contrast to what happens for the homogeneous mixing SEIR model. Numerical simulations on complex contact networks are performed to check the analytical assumptions and predictions.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

A review on West African Ebola epidemic dynamics models

Background and aims: The world is threatened by disease outbreak that reaches a public health emergency of international concern, studies to inform public and agencies for effective containment strategy are necessary. Several studies provided vital information of the dynamics and control of Ebola epidemic outbreak in West Africa. Methodologies and techniques in those researches...

متن کامل

Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model

While the foundations of modern epidemiology are based upon deterministic models with homogeneous mixing, it is being increasingly realized that both spatial structure and stochasticity play major roles in shaping epidemic dynamics. The integration of these two confounding elements is generally ascertained through numerical simulation. Here, for the first time, we develop a more rigorous analyt...

متن کامل

Generalization of Pairwise Models to non-Markovian Epidemics on Networks.

In this Letter, a generalization of pairwise models to non-Markovian epidemics on networks is presented. For the case of infectious periods of fixed length, the resulting pairwise model is a system of delay differential equations, which shows excellent agreement with results based on stochastic simulations. Furthermore, we analytically compute a new R_{0}-like threshold quantity and an analytic...

متن کامل

Pairwise and edge-based models of epidemic dynamics on correlated weighted networks.

In this paper we explore the potential of the pairwise-type modelling approach to be extended to weighted networks where nodal degree and weights are not independent. As a baseline or null model for weighted networks, we consider undirected, heterogenous networks where edge weights are randomly distributed. We show that the pairwise model successfully captures the extra complexity of the networ...

متن کامل

A class of pairwise models for epidemic dynamics on weighted networks.

In this paper, we study the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic models on undirected, weighted networks by deriving pairwise-type approximate models coupled with individual-based network simulation. Two different types of theoretical/synthetic weighted network models are considered. Both start from non-weighted networks with fixed topology foll...

متن کامل

Dynamics of Multi-stage Infections on Networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Journal of theoretical biology

دوره 352  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2014